A large number of local expressways have been included in the newly approved National Highway Network Planning (2013-2030) (hereinafter referred to as the “Planning”). The highways of Jishou-Enshi-Ankang, which have been working hard in Hubei and Hunan, have also been included in the national network.
To this end, in the future along the Baomao (Baotou, Inner Mongolia to Maoming, Guangdong) high-speed (G65) do not have to travel from Xi'an to Jishou from Xi'an, but can go directly from Xi'an to Ankang, and then to Jishou.
According to the above plan, the total scale of the national expressway network in 2030 is about 118,000 kilometers, and a long-term outlook line of 18,000 kilometers is planned. This is a significant increase from the target of 85,000 kilometers of the 2020 national highway network planned by the National Highway Network in 2004. The above-mentioned Jishou-Enshi-Ankang high-speed line is only a few cases newly incorporated into the national highway network.
In fact, the goal of planning in various places is higher. Highways like Guangdong, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan are all around 10,000 kilometers. If the planned highways are summarized, according to the estimates of relevant experts, it is close to 200,000 kilometers. Most of these new planned roads are in the coastal or western mountainous areas and are expensive.
Zhang Jiangyu, the Institute of Integrated Transportation of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that local investment is best done by weight. If the cost is too high, the future traffic volume will be small, which may have a great negative impact.
Highway network plan raised by 33,000 kilometers
The relevant person in charge of the transportation departments of many provinces and cities have recently been beaming because the large number of highways in their provinces have been included in the national road network. This not only greatly extends the national highway network routes in various provinces, but also means that the state will give a large amount of subsidies.
For example, Erlianhot to Qinhuangdao Expressway (Second-Qindao Expressway) in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province has been short-listed in the national expressway network, and the state intends to subsidize construction funds of 780 million yuan. The length of the project in the Zhangjiakou section is 130.126 kilometers, the design roadbed is 26 meters wide, the main line is two-way four-lane, and the speed is 100 kilometers per hour, which is about 60 million yuan per kilometer.
Although the Erqin Expressway is east-west, it is not the main east-west trunk of the country. More provinces and cities are rejoicing than the country's proposed increase in the number of major routes.
It was learned from the Basic Industry Division of the National Development and Reform Commission that the 'Plan' proposed that the total scale of the national expressway network in 2030 should be about 118,000 kilometers, and a long-term outlook line of 18,000 kilometers was planned. Among them, there are 7 capital radiation lines, 11 north-south vertical lines, 18 east-west horizontal lines, and some regional ring lines, parallel lines, and tie lines. Compared with the previous 7 capitals, 9 north-south vertical lines, and 18 east-west lines ( That is, the 7918 project) has changed.
Among them, the newly added North-South vertical line has new lines. For example, the high-speed G69 from Yinchuan to Baise is about 2,000 kilometers long. At present, the line has sections in various provinces, and it is planned to adjust the lines constructed in each province to new lines. In addition, as the above-mentioned Ankang-Enshi-Jishou Expressway is completed, the Baomao Expressway will reduce the detours. The north-west vertical line expressway will be adjusted, which may turn the past nine north-south vertical lines into 11.
Such adjustments also include routes for some urban agglomerations.
For example, the Beijing Outer Ring, which involves Hebei and Beijing, belongs to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, commonly known as the Big Seven Ring, and is also included in the national highway network. The inclusion of the line into the national expressway network will fundamentally change the seven radioactive highways in Beijing.
In the future, the starting points of Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, Daguang Expressway, and Beijing-Kunming Expressway will all be outside the 5th ring, or even further. The highways within the 4th and 5th rings are expected to become the main urban roads in Beijing. The high-speed fence will be demolished and the bus lanes will be built, and the surrounding areas may also develop communities. This will make the mileage of Daguang Expressway (Daqing to Guangzhou) and Beijing-Shanghai Expressway shorter than in the past. Beijing's Sixth Ring and Seventh Ring will become part of the Daguang Expressway, making the 4th and 5th Rings no longer a national expressway network.
Nearly double the place plus
Compared with the country's second round of highway adjustments, local highway planning adjustments are more daring.
It is understood that the current local level is basically adjusted according to the frequency of once every three years. In 2004, Guangdong planned to have a total highway network of about 8,800 kilometers in 2030. However, the 'Guangdong Province Expressway Construction Plan 2013-2017' said that in 2013-2015, there will be 25 sections of expressways in the province, and by 2017, the total mileage of expressways in the province will reach 8,140 kilometers. Guangdong plans to have more than 10,000 kilometers by 2030.
More provinces and cities are also raising their targets. For example, Yunnan proposed that the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will be opened to 10,000 kilometers, which is significantly higher than the planned target of 6,000 kilometers in the past. The adjustment plan of Sichuan Expressway Network Planning (2008-2030) proposes that the total mileage of the province's expressway network planning will reach about 12,000 kilometers, which is significantly higher than the previous 8600 kilometers. In addition, Inner Mongolia and other places also have highway planning of about 10,000 kilometers.
Jiangxi, Henan, Guizhou and Chongqing are also raising their targets. Among them, the mileage of Jiangxi's expressway has been changed from 4,650 kilometers in 2020 to 6050 kilometers. From 6840 kilometers in Henan, it was adjusted to 8070 kilometers. From 4050 kilometers in Shanxi, it was adjusted to 6160 kilometers.
In this regard, Liu Huiyong, president of the Investment Advisory Professional Committee of the China Investment Association, believes that local acceleration of highway investment construction can be understood. Because China's road network density is not as good as the United States. However, the most urgent need for construction at present is not to speed up the construction of expressways, but many rural roads should be built as soon as possible. The other key is the level of the highway. It is necessary to build 8 lanes. The 1km west needs 100 million is conservative, but the financial pressure may be great for the local government.
The figures show that the current highway density in China is 42 kilometers per square kilometer, which is lower than 67 kilometers in the United States, and less than 305 kilometers in Japan and 130 kilometers in Germany.
A large number of expressways have been built in the local area, and have been compiled by the state as a national expressway. According to the subsidy of 60,000 yuan per kilometer of the Erqin Expressway, the country plans to build 118,000 kilometers in 2030, which is calculated according to the planned increase of 33,000 kilometers in 2004. The subsidy is 1.98 trillion.
If the local area will re-invest in the current 100,000-kilometer expressway and re-invest in about 100,000 kilometers of new planning, it will need close to 5-10 trillion yuan of funds (calculated at 50 million to 100 million yuan per kilometer). With such a large number, only bank interest needs hundreds of billions a year. At present, the highway investment in Yunnan even has the situation that the annual toll income is not enough for the construction loan interest.
At present, the method adopted by Shanxi to allow state-owned coal enterprises to repair highways, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and other places to take the way to package business rights to private enterprises, let them build highways. However, Liu Huiyong once found that some local governments compensate 30%-40% of the land, and private enterprises still dare not take over.
Zhang Jiangyu believes that the localities still need to be cautious. Local revision highway planning does not require national approval, but it is too fast and the cost is too high, and there may be risks that are difficult to sustain.
For the existing expressway listed companies, the expected impacts of the new 'Planning' have both advantages and disadvantages. On the plus side, as the national road network layout is more optimized, coverage is wider, and the road network is more smoothly connected, it will induce new traffic flow, which will bring traffic growth expectations for some existing highways; On the one hand, due to the expansion of the scale of the road, the traffic passage of the same route may increase, especially with the construction and renovation of ordinary national roads, the highways without charges or other new highways will form a diversion of existing highways. In the long run, as the proportion of toll roads becomes smaller and smaller, the impact of diversion will become more apparent.